Sunday, November 23, 2008

USING DEMARKER TO TIME SPY 1-MINUTE CHART REVERSALS


***MOST IMPORTANT: I only feel comfortable using this method when market momentum is at its highest, open to 11:00am & 2:20pm to close.

Recently, I've been using the 8-period Demarker Indictator on the 1-minute to chart to aid in timing possible SPY reversals (and essentially SKF entries).

Depicted is Friday's 1-minute SPY chart and the six SPY reversal calls I was able to take advantage of. 

My priorities technically in looking for a possible reversal set-up are as follows.
1. OVERBOUGHT Demarker. Demarker must be printing a reading of at least 75. 80+ preferably.
2. CANDLE PATTERN. I must see a bearish candle reversal pattern.
3. RESISTANCE. I prefer TWO forms of resistance. (a fib line, a moving average, price resistance (typically whole/half numbers), a pivot).

I typically set my "mental stop" on this set-up a few pennies above the high of the SPY reversal candle that I entered against.


What I saw candle/resistance-wise at each point reversal point on Friday:

1. Candle: Off-setting bearish bars.
1. Resistance: Thursday's open, 38 fib retracement line (from Thurs low to high), Price resis at SPY 78
1. Set-up grade: A

2. Candle: Bearish engulfing.
2. Resistance: Price resis at SPY 77
2. Set-up grade: B-

3. Candle: Doji reversal (note price can't close above 76.50)
3. Resistance: Price resis at SPY 76.50
3. Set-up grade: B+ (notice the head and shoulders pattern in the Demarker indicator)

4. Candle: Bearish engulfing
4. Resistance: Price resis at SPY 76.50
4. Set-up grade: B

5. Candle: Big ugly red candle (note price can't close above 78) (note Demarker divergence with 307 high)
5.  Resistance: Thursday's open, 38 fib retracement line (from Thurs low to high), Price resis at SPY 78
5. Set-up grade: B

6. Candle: Ugly tweezer-top
6. Resistance: 62 fib retracement line (from Thurs low to high), Price resis at 79.50
6. Set-up grade: A-

1 comment:

Salsaman said...

Very nice detailed post "Billy!"

Salsaman